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Poll: Same-sex marriage ban trailing in Calif.
Prop 4 and Prop 11 have lukewarm support
Published Thursday, 30-Oct-2008 in issue 1088
SACRAMENTO (AP) – A ballot measure that would ban same-sex marriage in California is trailing heading into the final days of the November election, but the gap has narrowed during the last month, according to a poll released Oct. 23.
The survey by the Public Policy Institute of California also found only lukewarm voter support for two other initiatives. Proposition 4 would require parental notification before most minors could get an abortion, while Proposition 11 would strip state legislators of the power to draw their own districts.
Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment that would overturn a state Supreme Court ruling that authorized same-sex marriages, was supported by 44 percent of the 1,186 likely voters questioned by the Public Policy Institute in a telephone survey conducted Oct. 12-19. Fifty-two percent opposed it.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The survey findings released Oct. 23 were only slightly changed from a poll conducted in mid-September by the institute. That poll found 41 percent in support of Proposition 8 and 55 percent opposed.
Chip White, a spokesman for the Yes on Proposition 8 campaign, said other polls have found his side in the lead.
“Even this PPIC poll shows we’re gaining momentum,” he said. “This is going to be a close race all the way to Election Day.”
Steve Smith, a spokesman for the group opposing Proposition 8, did not immediately return telephone calls from The Associated Press seeking comment.
The abortion-notification measure had a 46 percent to 44 percent lead in the Public Policy Institute poll. In September, it led 48 percent to 47 percent.
Voters rejected similar parental notification proposals in a special election in 2005 and again in November 2006.
Albin Rhomberg, a spokesman for the Yes-on-Proposition 4 campaign, said the measure’s supporters were “cautiously optimistic” they would succeed this time.
“However, we’re not starry-eyed about this from previous experience,” he added.
Kathy Kneer, director of the No on 4 campaign, said the institute poll was taken before opposition efforts had hit their “full stride.”
“We’re confident that voters are going to vote for the third time to defeat this dangerous initiative,” she said.
Opponents contend it would encourage some teens to seek risky abortions rather than have their parents learn they were pregnant.
Stripping lawmakers of the power to draw their own legislative districts also has been a hard sell in California. Voters have rejected four previous attempts to do that over the last 26 years.
Proposition 11, which would create a state commission to draw new legislative districts after each national census, led 41 percent to 34 percent. But 25 percent of likely voters questioned by the institute were undecided.
The redistricting measure led 38 percent to 33 percent in the September survey.
Paul Hefner, a spokesman for the No on 11 campaign, predicted voters would reject the measure, despite a significant fund-raising advantage for the proposition’s supporters. The donations have been supplied primarily by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and many of his financial supporters.
“As the latest PPIC results show, so far Californians aren’t buying it,” Hefner said. “They’re about as interested in this confusing, complicated and unfair initiative as they are in four more years of George Bush.”
Jeannie English, president of AARP California, one of the groups backing Proposition 11, predicted support for the measure would grow as voters learn more about it.
The current system of drawing legislative districts allows lawmakers to “virtually guarantee their own re-election regardless of whether they do any work to solve the many critical problems facing California,” she said.
Turnout on Election Day could determine what happens to the ballot measures, said Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s president and chief executive officer.
Democrat Barack Obama led Republican John McCain by 23 points, 56 percent to 33 percent, in the poll. That represents a 13-point gain since September.
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