State and local marriage equality leaders debated whether to repeal Proposition 8 in 2010 or 2012 at a San Diego Democratic Club (SDDC) forum on marriage equality at the Joyce Beers Community Center, last Thursday.

Voter demographics, poll results, the economy and the strength of volunteer activism all factored in the panel debate, in which speakers from Equality California, Marriage Equality USA, Honor Pac and the Courage Campaign participated.

Those in favor of a repeal in 2010 said it’s time to “go on the offense.”

“If we sit this one out, what makes anyone think that they [the opposition] won’t come for [gay] adoption, that they won’t come for a ballot initiative for something else? They could do it again this time unless we go on the offense,” said Sara Beth Brooks, a regional representative for the 2010 campaign.

Others, however, said voter opinion and limited funds necessitate postponing repeal until 2012.

“We haven’t moved in the polls, right?” said Luis Lopez, a founding member of Honor Pac, which assists Latino/a GLBT communities in Los Angeles. “We’re in the same place that we were [in 2008].”

Lopez and Brooks were among four other speakers on the panel, including Equality California Marriage Director Marc Solomon, who endorses a 2012 campaign, Zakiya Khabir, who sits on the 2010 campaign’s temporary executive body, Fernando Lopez, board member of Marriage Equality USA, who stayed neutral, and Arisha Hatch, a field director for the Courage Campaign, which is supporting the 2010 campaign.

The panel first discussed the impact of voting demographics on the 2012 campaign.

Solomon and Lopez said that in California voter opinion has largely remained unchanged over the issue of marriage equality since last year’s campaign.

“I was expecting that we would see some real movement with all the protests and all the activism since November 2008,” Solomon said. “But there’s been no change, no movement.”

“What we do know is that the more time passes, the more voters become supportive of marriage equality,” Lopez said. “2012 will just give us more younger voters, less older voters, that are supportive of our community.”

In response, Brooks said that when the California Supreme Court overturned the state’s interracial marriage ban in 1948, 90 percent of Californians were against it.

“We do not wait for the polling numbers to be with us on this issue,” Brooks said. “If we’d waited on interracial marriage, it wouldn’t have been legal until 1991.”

Solomon and Lopez also questioned whether the 2010 campaign could raise enough funds to be successful.

Given that California voters’ attitudes towards same-sex marriage have not changed, the 2010 campaign will have major problems in fundraising, Solomon said.

“How can we expect them [donors] to give when we see no movement in the polls?” asked Solomon, who said such a campaign would cost close to $50 million.

“That’s $700,000 a week, every week ’til November 2010,” he said.

Responding to Solomon, Hatch said, “Once donors see a governing structure in place and a plan, it will inspire confidence in them.”

Brooks added that the Courage Campaign was able to raise $130,000 for research this past August, and that it “speaks to the viability of the 2010 campaign.”

The issue of funding led to a discussion on how the economy would affect either campaign.

Lopez said the community should wait until the economy turns around before it tries to win back the right to marry. “Whether you’re talking about larger donors or you’re talking about $25 from everyday people, folks don’t have the money. It’s just a hard time. We are hard pressed to raise what we need to raise to be successful in 2010,” Lopez said. “2012 gives us … a lot more time, not only to cultivate larger donors but to allow the economy to turn around so people will have more to give.”

Not everyone agreed, however, that the economy should be a factor in the decision. “I think banking on the economy is not going to be a strategy that works,” Zakiya said. “I’m less optimistic about what will happen in the next couple of years, and I don’t think anyone can say, for sure, that the economy will pick up.”

The advantage of the 2010 campaign, Brooks said, is its volunteer base.

“Every single one of us, from the executive officers on down to the regional reps., on down to the hub organizers are volunteers. We’re willing to give our time. We’re willing to give it freely,” Brooks said. “We want to make sure that we’re restoring equality on Nov. 2, 2010.”

Yet some questioned whether the 2010 campaign has enough volunteers to succeed.

“I’m not seeing a lot of people at your phone banks recruiting more people and fundraising and getting the money needed for this 2010 campaign,” said Alan Acevedo, an SDDC member and Equality California volunteer. “If there are so many people willing to do the work, I don’t see it.”

After the panel finished debating, SDDC members decided, for the time being, not to endorse either campaign.