Aside for the tracking polls that get our interest every other week and the media carnival that is the Democratic convention, not many people are focused on the November elections. Some feel Kerry is destined to win. Some are in denial that Bush could be re-elected. Others just aren’t focused.

But in case you think we’re in for anything less exciting than the 2000 election, stay tuned. We might be taught for the second time this century that every vote counts.

The first rule of handicapping presidential elections is to realize it’s not really a national race, but rather 50 state races, (plus the District of Columbia.) The candidate who gets 270 or more of the 538 electoral votes, wins. That’s how Bush, who actually lost the popular vote, ended up winning. (That and letting the Supreme Court vote.)

Therefore, to look at how the presidential election will shape up in 2004, it’s probably best to look at where we left off in 2000. The first important difference in the past four years is re-apportionment. The 2000 census shifted electoral votes on the campaign map in such a way that if the Bush-Gore election were held today, Bush would have won by seven more electoral votes than he did in 2000. So, let’s start off with Bush at 278 electoral votes, instead of the 271 he got in 2000.

If you’re a Kerry fan, you’ll want to assume that he can hold all of the states that Al Gore won in 2000. But the trouble is, some of them were very, very close. These included New Mexico, Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. The seven-state average winning margin for Gore in these states was less than 2 percent. Current polling has each of these in a competitive mode right now, but remaining optimistic, we’ll assume those are winnable as “blue states.”

What that leaves are at least five large states that could spell victory for Kerry if he were to win just one of them: Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio, Virginia and Florida (also known as “the mother-lode”). Let’s look at each.

In Missouri, Sen. Kit Bond is up for re-election and the Democratic governor is has been weakened by a vicious GOP legislature. This plays to Bush’s favor. Even though he only won that state by 4 percent in 2000, it leans to him again in 2004. Those folks love Branson and hate Yankees.

In Ohio, which Bush also carried by a slim 4 percent, the only thing working for Kerry is that the state’s economy stinks. But with popular Sen. George Voinovich on the ballot, Bush will spend even more time there, mending fences and probably keeping the Buckeye State in the GOP column. Remember, these people kept Rep. James “Beam-me-up” Traficant in office too many years to be progressive at the polls.

Al Gore’s home state has a popular Democratic governor and no Senate race, which works to Kerry’s favor. It may be his best shot in the South, though anyone who’s been there realizes this is a long shot. Kerry needs inside help here, (and I don’t mean Al). Say, like if Dolly Parton came out to help Kerry with “both barrels,” so to speak. Virginia could be another Southern state in the running that could swing to the Kerry camp.

Despite the seven-point spread between Bush and Gore, Kerry could narrow that if he plays up his military service and doesn't say “Virginier” out loud.

There is also a shot for the Democrats in Nevada and West Virginia, though both wouldn’t be enough to win the Presidency unless another previous Bush state falls.

Which leads us to Florida. If only 931 lazy gay Democrats had gone to polls three and a half years ago, gay marriage wouldn’t be politicized in the White House, 846 U.S. soldiers would still be alive, and President Gore would be running for re-election.

With four months to go before the election, we still have the Republican convention, the post-Labor Day campaign kick-off and scores of television ads to go. But by these estimates, in 2004, as in 2000, every vote will count. Including yours.