The next four years will be key for marriage equality, reproductive freedom, gay and lesbian military personnel, and national security – who is president will make all the difference.

In Congress, the Republican effort to outlaw same-sex marriage through a constitutional amendment seems dead. It failed in both houses this year, and Republicans will not gain the votes in either house in this election for an amendment to pass. Kerry opposes a federal amendment and obviously would not push for one. Bush would not push for one either because it would fail and because, as a second-term president, he would not be as worried about securing votes from religious conservatives.

On a state level, we will see more legislative attempts to grant same-sex marriage rights. We will see such a bill in California next year, and a couple of other states may follow suit. At the same time, there will continue to be proposed state constitutional amendments, referenda and initiatives on same-sex marriage. Republicans will promote ballot measures against same-sex marriage to boost conservative turnout in the 2006 and 2008 elections. Where same-sex marriage passes legislatively and is not overturned by a referendum, it will go in the books. Where it is overturned by a ballot measure, it will go to the courts.

The courts are where the presidency will have the biggest effect on same-sex marriage. The battles will be fought in state courts first but will ultimately work their way to the federal court system, where the president appoints judges. Kerry would appoint moderate to liberal judges; Bush would appoint conservative ones. Bush’s judges may well uphold laws that prohibit same-sex marriage. Kerry’s judges would be more likely to strike down those laws.

The presidency will also affect a woman’s right to unrestricted reproductive freedom. Kerry’s court appointments would probably overturn the recently-enacted ban on certain late-term abortions and would uphold Roe v. Wade. Bush would continue to undermine Roe v. Wade administratively by making it harder for women to learn about and avail themselves of their options.

“Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” will probably be around for another four years. It would certainly remain in place under Bush. Kerry wants gays and lesbians to be allowed to serve openly in the military, but it would be difficult to make the change while our troops are in Iraq. There would be silly debates over whether the heterosexual troops would be panicked and demoralized. It would be a distraction that Kerry doesn’t need as he resolves the mess in Iraq. Of course, a compelling argument could be made that some of our overextended troops could go home if everyone who wished to serve in the military were allowed to do so, but reason would inevitably take a back seat to fear on this issue while we are at war. If the military conflict quickly gives way to a period of peace, and if it is not too close to the 2008 election, “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” could be dropped. However, it is more likely to happen during a Kerry second term.

The situation in Iraq and national security in general are where the presidential election will make the most immediate and dramatic difference. Bush’s treatment of our allies has left many of them disinclined to help the U.S. with Iraq. Kerry would quickly repair these damaged relationships. There are plenty of military, economic and political reasons for our allies to want to partner with America, and several would help a Kerry administration deal with Iraq. A greater international presence in Iraq would enable the U.S. to focus more attention on other priorities. Bilateral talks with North Korea might well produce a palatable agreement, more steps would be taken to improve security at our borders, and a Kerry administration might alter the political dynamics in the Middle East enough to result in the capture of Osama bin Laden. Kerry would not magically create world peace, but he would make progress.

A parting thought before the election: People keep telling me that if Bush wins they will move to Canada. These people have clearly forgotten the hell of winter, especially in the arctic latitudes north of, say, Los Angeles. Besides, as much as I respect and enjoy my point-counterpoint pal, Garrick Wilhelm, we cannot just abandon America and leave the Log Cabin Republicans in charge. If we must move, we should find a battleground state that we can take over for the Democrats in 2008. Fifty-thousand homosexuals descending on Arkansas could be a hoot.