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Exit polls: A look at voters and their thinking
Associated Press surveys why voters chose Bush, Kerry
Published Thursday, 11-Nov-2004 in issue 881
(AP) – A look at voters’ thinking in the Nov. 2 presidential election, as they chose between President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry, according to exit polls conducted for The Associated Press:
BUSH VOTERS:
-WHO: Bush won the men’s vote – dominating among white men – and also the married women’s vote. He carried voters with family income over $50,000, gun owners and weekly churchgoers. Three-fourths of the white voters who described themselves as born-again Christians or evangelicals supported Bush. That group represented about a fifth of all voters.
Bush won a strong majority of white Catholics’ votes, and edged Kerry among Catholics overall.
-WHY: Bush voters said moral values and terrorism were the two issues that mattered most – each was chosen by about a third of the president’s supporters. The candidate qualities that mattered most, they said, were being a strong leader and having clear stands on the issues. Eight out of 10 Bush voters said they were mainly voting for the president, instead of against Kerry.
-CHARACTER: A majority of all voters said Bush pays more attention to the interests of large corporations than to the interests of ordinary Americans; only about 40 percent said he puts ordinary folks first. About half of voters had a favorable opinion of Bush, and half didn’t.
KERRY VOTERS:
-WHO: Kerry won the women’s vote on the strength of his support among single women. He was a strong favorite of households with a union member and those with family income under $30,000. Voters who considered themselves moderates also favored Kerry, and he had a slender advantage among those not aligned with either major party.
He won about 90 percent of the black vote, doing as well as Democrat Al Gore in 2000. Black voters rated the economy and jobs as the most important issue. Almost half of blacks said their own family’s financial situation was worse than four years ago; only about one in seven said they were doing better.
Kerry also held a significant lead among Hispanics. Like black voters, they said the most important candidate quality was that he would bring about needed change.
-WHY: The top issue for Kerry voters was the economy and jobs – cited by about a third of them. Next came Iraq. More than a third of Kerry voters said they were mainly voting against Bush.
About half of Kerry voters chose “he will bring about needed change” as the quality that mattered most.
-CHARACTER: A majority of all voters said Kerry mostly says what he thinks people want to hear; only about 40 percent said he says what he believes. About half of voters had a favorable opinion of him and half didn’t.
TOP ISSUES:
JOBS: More than four in 10 voters said the job situation in their area was worse than four years ago, and they backed Kerry by a vast margin. Bush won handily among those who thought things were about the same or better.
ECONOMY: Voters rated the nation’s economy significantly worse than they did four years ago, when 75 percent called it excellent or good. This year, less than half found things that rosy and a majority said the economy was poor to not so good.
That doesn’t mean they were feeling the pain personally, however. About four in 10 voters said their own family’s financial situation was about the same as four years ago; the rest were roughly divided between being better or worse off.
TERROR: Seven out of 10 voters said they were worried about another major terrorist attack on America. But that didn’t necessarily drive them toward Bush – they were only slightly more likely to vote for Bush than those who weren’t too worried about an attack.
About 55 percent of voters said they trust Bush to handle terrorism, compared with about 40 percent who felt that way about Kerry. One in 10 voters didn’t trust either one on the issue.
A majority said the country was safer from terrorism than four years ago, compared with some 40 percent who felt less safe. The youngest voters – 18 to 24 year olds – were less likely to feel safer.
IRAQ: A majority said they thought things were going badly for the United States in Iraq, and they heavily favored Kerry. Yet slightly more voters approved of the decision to go to war with Iraq than disapproved.
A slim majority of voters said the war hasn’t improved the nation’s long-term security; most of them voted for Kerry. A majority also said they consider the war in Iraq part of the war on terrorism, and they largely voted Bush.
OTHER ISSUES:
HEALTHCARE: Nine out of 10 voters were concerned about the availability and cost of healthcare; the majority who called themselves “very concerned” went strongly for Kerry. Bush led by far among the rest.
Despite their worries, less than a tenth of voters ranked healthcare the top issue.
MOOD: Voters were split over whether the nation was headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track – unlike four years ago, when most thought it was going the right way.
DIVISION: Strong feelings were evident on both sides. A fourth of voters said they felt angry about the Bush administration; almost as many said they were enthusiastic.
VOTE COUNTING: Almost nine out of 10 voters felt confident that votes in their state would be counted accurately. The minority who lacked confidence were mostly Kerry voters.
SAME-SEX MARRIAGE: About a third of voters said there should be no legal recognition of same-sex couples. Among the other two-thirds, significantly more approved of civil unions than allowing same-sex couples to marry.
Almost 5 percent of voters said they were gay or lesbian, and they favored Kerry 3-to-1.
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