ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) – The chances of same-sex marriage becoming legal in New York next year will depend largely on who becomes the state’s next governor, political observers said.

But there are no sure bets.

On July 6, the Court of Appeals – the state’s top court – ruled 4-2 that the law limiting marriage to between a man and a woman was constitutional. The court said it was up to lawmakers to change the law.

Following the ruling, it remained unclear where the issue stood in the Republican-led state Senate and Democrat-led Assembly. But the “single biggest variable” in the coming debate is where the next governor stands on the issue, said Blair Horner of the New York Public Interest Research Group.

Front-running Democratic candidate Eliot Spitzer said he will propose, draft and sign a bill legalizing same-sex marriage.

“He plans to make it a priority if elected,” Spitzer campaign spokesperson Christine Anderson said.

“If elected governor, I will work to ensure that marriage remains a relationship between a man and a woman,” said Republican and conservative candidate John Faso.

“I do not support gay marriage,” said Democratic challenger Tom Suozzi, the Nassau County executive who hopes to force a September Democratic primary.

Yet whoever takes office will have to contend with a legislature that has been reluctant to deal with the issue. Several bills that would have allowed same-sex couples to marry have failed to make it out of committee in either house in recent years.

Republicans in the Senate, with a 35-27 majority, may be reluctant to even consider the issue in 2007, said Gerald Benjamin, a political science professor and a dean at the State University of New York at New Paltz.

“It’s not likely to happen, in my judgment,” Benjamin said, noting that 2007 is an off year for elections so there would be little reason for GOP senators to pass a same-sex marriage law.

“Republicans only respond outside their natural constituency if they feel threatened. This is a spark issue in their constituency,” he said, and without elections they’re less likely to try to broaden their appeal with a concession to supporters of same-sex marriage.

Republican Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno doesn’t support same-sex marriage.

Still, gay rights groups point out that recently enacted laws against hate crimes and discrimination against gays and lesbians were once opposed by Republican senators who later changed their minds.

“It’s going to be a tough battle. However, the [gay] community has made enormous progress, and I’ve seen enormous progress since I’ve been in the Legislature,” said state Sen. Thomas Duane, a Manhattan Democrat who is gay.

Lawmakers, however, framed those measures as logical extensions of civil rights laws to combat discrimination in employment, housing and other areas commonly protected by law. Opponents of same-sex marriage argue allowing same-sex couples to marry would damage the institution of marriage.

Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, a Manhattan Democrat, hasn’t commented on his position or the court’s ruling.

Alan Van Capelle, executive director of the Empire State Pride Agenda, on July 6 began a campaign to get lawmakers to rewrite the state’s marriage law. He’s taking aim first at the Assembly.

“There are 104 Democrats in the Assembly so there is no reason why they can’t bring this to a vote and approve it in their house this year,” he said. Republicans hold just 45 seats in the chamber.

Assemblymember Richard Brodsky said that while he supports same-sex marriage, there is no consensus among Assembly Democrats.

“There is strong disagreement,” he said, over the ethical, political and practical implications of making same-sex marriage legal.

Republican Gov. George Pataki, who opposes same-sex marriage, is not seeking a fourth term.