Discouraging data out of the International AIDS Conference in Toronto last month shows the Western world is facing another wave in the AIDS pandemic. According to reports from the Agence France-Presse, infection rates among gay men are forecasted to reach as high as 58 percent in coming generations.

Research from the University of Pittsburg showed that since 2001, infection rates in the United States, Canada, Europe and Australia have been rising by 1.9 percent per year. If this trend continues, infection rates are predicted to soar as the population ages. According to researchers, HIV affected roughly one in 12 gay 20-year-olds in these countries in 2001. By the time the men are 30, the rate could rise to one in four. And by the time this group reaches 60, 58 percent could be infected.

This sharp increase over time has been attributed to a multitude of variables. Men who have sex with men (MSM) within the African-American community suffer the highest infection rates out of any risk group in the world, according to the report, and the statistics are startling. The rate of new infections in African-American MSM between the ages of 15 and 22 is 4 percent, and 15 percent between ages 23 and 29. Assuming the average rate of 4 percent remains constant, researchers say three-quarters will be HIV positive by the age of 50.

Another factor implicated in rising HIV rates is the use of methamphetamines. Recognizing the symbiotic relationship between increased meth use and HIV rates, San Diego’s GLBT community has seen the creation of many campaigns and nonprofit organizations designed to address meth use in the gay men’s community. It time, we hope to see the benefits of this stand against crystal meth.

Following the initial onslaught of HIV and AIDS, a new culture of sexual behavior began to take shape, one that contrasted sharply with the years of sexual liberation following Stonewall. Witnessing friends, lovers and family members all succumb to the disease – as well as intense education and prevention campaigns – spawned two decades of safer-sex practices. Advances in treatment options and life-prolonging antiretroviral medications have dramatically changed the quality of life for those who are infected. And in the minds of many, HIV has subsequently been categorized as a chronic illness. These welcomed messages that classify HIV as “manageable,” however, undeniably work against fear as a powerful means of prevention and has led to greater risk-taking. The further removed the community becomes from the early days of AIDS in America – specifically our younger generation – the more likely gay men will return to unsafe sex practices.

And the numbers of rigorous prevention campaigns that characterized the previous decades are dwindling, along with prevention dollars. Today, recognizable groups in San Diego like Project Lifeguard and Rubber Boys are almost nonexistent, begging the question, why? Is it a funding issue? And if government funds have dried up or if restrictions placed on monies inhibit effective prevention methods, what about private sources?

While The Center, our community’s largest service provider, incorporates prevention in a number of their services – such as the Hillcrest Youth Center, Youth Housing Project and mental health services, to name a few – dynamic community outreach seems to be a thing of the past. Should The Center commit resources to politically motivated campaigns, such as marriage equality and Get Out the Vote, when prevention and education is lacking? Where does preventing the next generation of gay men from becoming infected rank on our current list of priorities?

HIV hasn’t gone away. Yes, compared to the years before HAART (Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy), HIV has become “manageable,” but younger generations must hear what manageable really means. It’s a lifetime of adherence to medications that – despite rave reviews – come with a laundry list of potential side effects. Noise over the one-pill regime, for example, should not drown out the truth that along with HIV comes loss of life expectancy, potential devastating body changes such as lipodystrophy, stigma and a lifetime of avoidable challenges to both body and mind.

Statistics show that unless prevention measures spur a return to safe sex or there’s an unexpected medical breakthrough, HIV rates will soar. It’s what we do with that information now that will have an impact on our future as a community. And there’s no definitive answer here. Do we return to fear-based prevention? Do we focus our efforts on meth users? Should funding be dramatically redirected toward programs serving the African-American community?

It’s understandable the community needs to catch its breath, let out a sigh of relief and truly appreciate the fruition of decades of advocacy. We have much to celebrate indeed. But the very nature of HIV demands that all eyes stay focused on what we’ve spent years battling. Our fight, sadly, is far from over.