The obituary-in-waiting for the Anglican Communion goes something like this: A nearly 500-year-old worldwide fellowship of Christian churches splits apart over disputes about gay and lesbian clergy – and American liberals get most of the blame.

It’s a crisp, tidy farewell. But one that may not prove true, even as gloomy predictions were rampant after the U.S. Episcopal Church wrapped up a gathering late last month without coming close to meeting demands of conservatives across the 77 million-member communion.

Powerful considerations – both practical and theological – still stand in the way of one of the biggest meltdowns in Christian unity since the 16th century Reformation, clerics and scholars say.

“The problems are very, very deep,” said Canon Martyn Minns, rector of Truro Church in Fairfax, Va., and a leader of the conservative bloc at the Episcopal meeting in Columbus, Ohio. “But I don’t share the view that it’s moving toward a decisive break. That’s not how we do things.”

What’s more likely, many experts say, is a continued erosion from within – an implosion rather than explosion.

This could fold Anglicanism’s big tent, the denominations rooted in the Church of England and roughly stretching across former British colonies and the old Empire. In its place, the 38 Anglican provinces might stay linked, but in name only – each going their own way on key issues including same-sex blessings, women clergy and the ordination of openly gay priests and bishops.

“Anglicanism, as we know it, would no longer exist,” said the Rev. Peter Moore, dean emeritus at the conservative Trinity Episcopal School for Ministry in Ambridge, Pa. “Something else would take its place.”

The Episcopal delegates made it clear they relish their independence. The assembly rebuffed Anglican demands to temporarily halt electing gay and lesbian bishops. In the final hours of the meeting, they approved a nonbinding and vaguely worded compromise resolution to “exercise restraint” when considering bishop candidates whose lifestyle “presents a challenge” to the communion.

But it falls far short of the moratorium proposal, which was suggested by top Anglican officials as a way to ease anger among conservatives following the 2003 election of Bishop V. Gene Robinson of New Hampshire, who lives with his longtime male partner.

Anglican traditionalists, led by African clerics, consider homosexuality a violation of Scripture and accuse gay clergy supporters of driving a wedge into the communion. Gay advocates counter that the conservatives are the dividers, by demanding a uniform view of Scripture in a communion that has welcomed a diversity of views.

Conservatives received a further jolt when the Episcopal leadership selected Nevada Bishop Katharine Jefferts Schori as the first women ever to head an Anglican province. Some conservative Anglican strongholds, such as Nigeria and Tanzania, do not permit the ordination of women.

The forecasts for the communion now carry an extra dose of bleakness.

Bishop Michael Nazir-Ali, of Rochester in England, was quoted as saying “virtually two religions” now exist between conservatives and liberals.

“A schism exists right now,” said the Rev. George Curry, chair of the Church Society, a conservative Anglican group based in Britain. “Everyone must recognize that the Anglican Communion is fractured beyond repair.”